FERC’s projections show coal, oil, and natural gas generation decreasing by 21,377 MW, 2,114 MW, and 1,606 MW respectively. If these predictions hold, solar energy will account for 15.2% of U.S. utility-scale capacity by September 2027 — more than coal’s 13.2% or wind’s 12.6% and nearly double that of nuclear power (7.5%) and hydropower (7.3%). Solar would then rank as the second-largest utility-scale source, with only natural gas leading at 40.3%.
FERC foresees renewable energy’s share reaching 36.4% of total U.S. utility-scale capacity, with solar and wind comprising over three-quarters of this renewable capacity. Including small-scale solar installations could push total solar capacity to over 300 GW by 2027. Consequently, all renewables would surpass 40% of total installed capacity, while natural gas could fall to around 37%.
Moreover, up to 212,412 MW of net solar, 67,395 MW of wind, 8,944 MW of hydropower, 199 MW of geothermal, and 195 MW of biomass could be in development, positioning renewables for an even stronger showing in the energy mix by late summer 2027. This steady rise in solar energy trend marks a significant transition in the U.S. toward cleaner, renewable power sources.